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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 11 at the 58

Green Bay Packers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 16

What Actually Happened

(3:44) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hundley sacked at GB 30 for -12 yards (55-T.Suggs).

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.04 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 58, worth -2.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 18, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.61 EP