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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 16 at the 36

Baltimore Ravens 16 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(2:34) 4-S.Koch punts 30 yards to GB 6, Center-46-M.Cox. 81-G.Allison MUFFS catch, touched at GB 6, ball out of bounds at GB 6.

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +2.22 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 36, worth -2.00 EP
KICK -0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.22 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.63 EP