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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 14

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 9-J.Tucker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.21 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 14, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.26 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model