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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 70

Buffalo Bills 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 24

What Actually Happened

(9:12) 6-C.Schmidt punts 46 yards to LAC 24, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 12-T.Benjamin to LAC 24 for no gain (29-S.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.47 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 70, worth -4.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 28, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model