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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
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Los Angeles Chargers

HC Anthony Lynn
Sunday 2017-11-19 · 16:05 StubHub Center, Carson US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.0 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

BUF
39.7%
LAC
60.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to BUF: Philip Rivers (LAC) +0.099 vs Nathan Peterman (BUF) +0.508 EPA/dropback (BUF starting Nathan Peterman in place of Tyrod Taylor)
  • BUF offense: -0.114 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • LAC defense: -0.046 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (16th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BUF 21
–
LAC 27
Projected margin: LAC by 6 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

BUF

Cordy Glenn T Out Foot
John Miller G Out Ankle
Mike Tolbert RB Out Hamstring
Charles Clay TE Questionable Knee
Jerry Hughes DE Questionable Shin
Jordan Matthews WR Questionable Knee

LAC

Joe Barksdale T Out Foot
James Onwualu LB Doubtful Quadricep
Hayes Pullard LB Doubtful Neck
Philip Rivers QB Questionable Concussion
Chris McCain DE Questionable Quadricep

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 24
–
LAC 54

Prediction missed by 24 pts on margin, 30 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:00 TD LAC (12:00) 2-N.Peterman pass short right intended for 42-P.DiMarco INTERCEPTED by 56-K.Toomer at LAC 41. 56-K.Toomer for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was in bounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. BUF 0 – LAC 6
  • Q1 09:12 TD BUF (9:12) 25-L.McCoy left end for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 6 – LAC 7
  • Q1 04:01 FG LAC (4:01) 9-N.Novak 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens. BUF 7 – LAC 10
  • Q2 12:59 TD LAC (12:59) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right to 13-K.Allen for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 7 – LAC 16
  • Q2 10:36 TD LAC (10:36) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 13-K.Allen for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. BUF 7 – LAC 23
  • Q2 05:00 FG LAC (5:00) 9-N.Novak 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens. BUF 7 – LAC 27
  • Q2 01:17 TD LAC (1:17) (Shotgun) 28-M.Gordon right end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 7 – LAC 33
  • Q2 00:02 FG LAC (:02) 9-N.Novak 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens. BUF 7 – LAC 37
  • Q3 10:24 FG LAC (10:24) 9-N.Novak 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens. BUF 7 – LAC 40
  • Q3 07:39 FG BUF (7:39) 4-S.Hauschka 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. BUF 10 – LAC 40
  • Q3 02:03 TD LAC (2:03) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor sacked at BUF 35 for -8 yards (99-J.Bosa). FUMBLES (99-J.Bosa) [99-J.Bosa], RECOVERED by LAC-54-M.Ingram at BUF 39. 54-M.Ingram for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 10 – LAC 46
  • Q4 13:57 TD BUF (13:57) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short left to 25-L.McCoy for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 16 – LAC 47
  • Q4 08:03 TD LAC (8:03) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 17 – LAC 53
  • Q4 04:54 TD BUF (4:54) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 23 – LAC 54

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 7 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 79%

    (9:55) 9-N.Novak 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 7 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 93%

    (4:01) 9-N.Novak 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (9:12) 6-C.Schmidt punts 46 yards to LAC 24, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 12-T.Benjamin to LAC 24 for no gain (29-S.Thomas).

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 9 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 96%

    (5:00) 9-N.Novak 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (3:54) 6-C.Schmidt punts 29 yards to LAC 43, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (10:24) 9-N.Novak 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 10 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 71%

    (7:39) 4-S.Hauschka 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 2 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (4:52) 8-D.Kaser punts 46 yards to BUF 14, Center-47-M.Windt. 15-B.Tate to BUF 17 for 3 yards (51-K.Emanuel).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 4 at the 57
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (2:03) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor sacked at BUF 35 for -8 yards (99-J.Bosa). FUMBLES (99-J.Bosa) [99-J.Bosa], RECOVERED by LAC-54-M.Ingram at BUF 39. 54-M.Ingram for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 12 at the 12
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 95%

    (13:57) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short left to 25-L.McCoy for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 3 at the 40 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 51%

    (3:49) 8-D.Kaser punts 27 yards to BUF 13, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 15-B.Tate.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 6 at the 83 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (2:56) 6-C.Schmidt punts 45 yards to LAC 38, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 20-D.King to LAC 40 for 2 yards (30-L.Pitts).