4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 72

Buffalo Bills 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 27

What Actually Happened

(3:54) 6-C.Schmidt punts 29 yards to LAC 43, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.03 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.46 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model