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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 60

Los Angeles Chargers 40 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(4:52) 8-D.Kaser punts 46 yards to BUF 14, Center-47-M.Windt. 15-B.Tate to BUF 17 for 3 yards (51-K.Emanuel).

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.28 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 60, worth -3.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 19, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP