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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 12 at the 12

Buffalo Bills 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 47

What Actually Happened

(13:57) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short left to 25-L.McCoy for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.16 EP
What Happened
  • 24% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.82 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 12, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.60 EP