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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 40

Los Angeles Chargers 54 – Buffalo Bills 24

What Actually Happened

(3:49) 8-D.Kaser punts 27 yards to BUF 13, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 15-B.Tate.

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +2.66 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 40, worth -1.50 EP
KICK +0.05 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP