Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 83

Buffalo Bills 24 – Los Angeles Chargers 54

(2:56) 6-C.Schmidt punts 45 yards to LAC 38, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 20-D.King to LAC 40 for 2 yards (30-L.Pitts).

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.65 EP
58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 83, worth -3.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model