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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 28

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(9:55) 9-N.Novak 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

The Three Options

GO +1.55 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.79 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 28, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.87 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 38, worth -1.28 EP
PUNT +0.81 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model