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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 68

Chicago Bears 17 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(3:45) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 52 yards to DET 16, Center-49-A.DePaola. 39-J.Agnew ran ob at DET 28 for 12 yards (38-A.Amos).

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.60 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 68, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.11 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 26, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model