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Detroit Lions

HC Jim Caldwell
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CHI Home

Chicago Bears

HC John Fox
Sunday 2017-11-19 · 13:00 Soldier Field, Chicago US 💨 Windy Spread -3.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

DET
57.4%
CHI
42.6%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CHI offense: -0.198 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • Mitch Trubisky (CHI): -0.207 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DET offense: -0.047 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • CHI defense: -0.076 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • Wind 16 mph

Predicted Final Score

DET 21
–
CHI 18
Projected margin: DET by 3 Projected total: 39

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

DET

Ezekiel Ansah DE Out Back
Dwayne Washington RB Out Hip
Don Carey S Questionable Knee
Jalen Reeves-Maybin LB Questionable Ankle

CHI

Bryce Callahan CB Questionable Knee
Dion Sims TE Questionable Illness
Danny Trevathan LB Questionable Calf
Tom Compton T Questionable Ankle
DeAndre Houston-Carson S Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 27
–
CHI 24

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:24 FG CHI (8:24) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-A.DePaola, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. DET 0 – CHI 3
  • Q1 03:29 TD CHI (3:29) 79-B.Sowell reported in as eligible. 10-M.Trubisky pass short right to 87-A.Shaheen for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 0 – CHI 9
  • Q2 14:09 TD DET (14:09) 10-M.Trubisky FUMBLES (Aborted) at CHI 26, RECOVERED by DET-31-D.Hayden at CHI 27. 31-D.Hayden for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – CHI 10
  • Q2 08:36 TD CHI (8:36) (Shotgun) 24-Jo.Howard left tackle for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 7 – CHI 16
  • Q2 05:24 TD DET (5:24) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 11-M.Jones for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 13 – CHI 17
  • Q2 00:24 TD DET (:24) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 21-A.Abdullah for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 20 – CHI 17
  • Q4 10:04 FG DET (10:04) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 24 – CHI 17
  • Q4 05:09 TD CHI (5:09) 29-T.Cohen left end for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 24 – CHI 23
  • Q4 01:40 FG DET (1:40) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 27 – CHI 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%

    (8:24) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-A.DePaola, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 7 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 19%

    (:13) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 34 yards to CHI 16, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (3:45) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 52 yards to DET 16, Center-49-A.DePaola. 39-J.Agnew ran ob at DET 28 for 12 yards (38-A.Amos).

  • Q3 DET 4th & 16 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (13:29) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 47 yards to CHI 39, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 29-T.Cohen to 50 for 11 yards (54-S.Longa).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 10 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 19%

    (12:38) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 40 yards to DET 10, Center-49-A.DePaola, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 10 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 40%

    (9:17) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 38 yards to CHI 3, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, out of bounds.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 6 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (6:05) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 55 yards to DET 12, Center-49-A.DePaola. 39-J.Agnew to DET 23 for 11 yards (27-S.McManis).

  • Q3 DET 4th & 1 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (4:33) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 53 yards to CHI 15, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 16 for 1 yard (26-D.Carey).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 1 at the 75
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (2:14) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 39 yards to DET 36, Center-49-A.DePaola. 39-J.Agnew MUFFS catch, and recovers at DET 37. 39-J.Agnew to DET 37 for no gain (27-S.McManis).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 7 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 96%

    (10:04) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 18 at the 34 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 60%

    (1:40) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 13 at the 62 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 26%

    (:28) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky scrambles left end to DET 43 for 19 yards (32-T.Wilson).