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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 50

Chicago Bears 17 – Detroit Lions 21

What Actually Happened

(12:38) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 40 yards to DET 10, Center-49-A.DePaola, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.45 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 50, worth -2.80 EP
KICK -1.85 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 14, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model