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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 41

Detroit Lions 21 – Chicago Bears 17

What Actually Happened

(9:17) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 38 yards to CHI 3, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.87 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 41, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.97 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 12, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model