Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 67

Chicago Bears 17 – Detroit Lions 21

(6:05) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 55 yards to DET 12, Center-49-A.DePaola. 39-J.Agnew to DET 23 for 11 yards (27-S.McManis).

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.09 EP
62% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 67, worth -3.73 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model