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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 68

Detroit Lions 21 – Chicago Bears 17

What Actually Happened

(4:33) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 53 yards to CHI 15, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 16 for 1 yard (26-D.Carey).

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.38 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 68, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 26, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP