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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 9

Detroit Lions 21 – Chicago Bears 17

What Actually Happened

(10:04) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.12 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 9, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.95 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model