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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 5

Chicago Bears 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(8:24) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-A.DePaola, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +2.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.23 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 5, worth +0.42 EP
KICK +2.23 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.49 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model