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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 18 at the 34

Detroit Lions 24 – Chicago Bears 24

What Actually Happened

(1:40) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.03 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 34, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 44, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model