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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 50

Detroit Lions 0 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(:13) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 34 yards to CHI 16, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.90 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 50, worth -2.78 EP
KICK -1.86 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 14, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model