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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 12

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(14:14) (Field Goal formation) 7-P.Murray 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +2.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.13 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 12, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 22, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP