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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Dirk Koetter
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Miami Dolphins

HC Adam Gase
Sunday 2017-11-19 · 13:00 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

TB
51.8%
MIA
48.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIA offense: -0.201 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • TB offense: -0.056 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • MIA defense: +0.053 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • QB edge to TB: Jay Cutler (MIA) -0.069 vs Ryan Fitzpatrick (TB) -0.054 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

TB 22
–
MIA 21
Projected margin: TB by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

TB

William Gholston DE Out Neck
Vernon Hargreaves CB Out Hamstring
Jameis Winston QB Out right Shoulder

MIA

Kenny Stills WR Questionable Back
William Hayes DE Questionable Knee
Senorise Perry RB Questionable Knee
Michael Thomas S Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 30
–
MIA 20

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:16 FG TB (7:16) (Field Goal formation) 7-P.Murray 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger. TB 3 – MIA 0
  • Q1 04:27 TD MIA (4:27) 6-J.Cutler pass short left to 14-J.Landry for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 3 – MIA 6
  • Q2 14:14 FG TB (14:14) (Field Goal formation) 7-P.Murray 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger. TB 6 – MIA 7
  • Q2 12:20 TD TB (12:20) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 80-O.Howard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 12 – MIA 7
  • Q2 00:50 TD TB (:50) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 11-D.Jackson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 19 – MIA 7
  • Q3 11:01 FG MIA (11:01) (Field Goal formation) 1-C.Parkey 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack. TB 20 – MIA 10
  • Q3 04:22 FG MIA (4:22) (Field Goal formation) 1-C.Parkey 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack. TB 20 – MIA 13
  • Q4 03:09 TD MIA (3:09) (Shotgun) 8-M.Moore pass deep right to 10-K.Stills for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 20 – MIA 19
  • Q4 00:07 FG TB (:07) (Field Goal formation) 7-P.Murray 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger. TB 23 – MIA 20
  • Q4 00:04 TD TB 7-P.Murray kicks 40 yards from TB 35 to MIA 25. 26-D.Williams to MIA 18 for -7 yards. Pass back to 14-J.Landry to MIA 15 for -3 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by MIA-19-J.Grant at MIA 13. 19-J.Grant to MIA 3 for -10 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by TB-53-A.Glanton at MIA 0. TOUCHDOWN. TB 29 – MIA 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 4 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 19%

    (13:11) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 41 yards to MIA 12, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 14-J.Landry to MIA 19 for 7 yards (26-J.Robinson).

  • Q1 TB 4th & 6 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 95%

    (7:16) (Field Goal formation) 7-P.Murray 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 2 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 95%

    (14:14) (Field Goal formation) 7-P.Murray 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 9 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 84%

    (9:18) (Field Goal formation) 7-P.Murray 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 2 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 22%

    (2:00) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 21 yards to MIA 30, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%

    (11:01) (Field Goal formation) 1-C.Parkey 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 8 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (9:19) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 44 yards to MIA 21, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 19-J.Grant.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 12 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 95%

    (4:22) (Field Goal formation) 1-C.Parkey 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (2:24) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 62 yards to MIA 10, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 19-J.Grant to MIA 10 for no gain (25-P.Barber). PENALTY on MIA-42-A.Verner, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 10.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 9 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 38%

    (12:33) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 42 yards to TB 2, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-35-W.Aikens. PENALTY on TB-91-R.Ayers Jr., Offensive Holding, 1 yard, enforced at TB 2.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 1 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 64%

    (7:03) 26-D.Williams right guard to TB 34 for no gain (90-C.Baker; 54-L.David).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 13 at the 62 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (4:50) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 36 yards to MIA 26, Center-65-G.Sanborn, downed by TB-53-A.Glanton.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 7 at the 17 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 92%

    (:07) (Field Goal formation) 7-P.Murray 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.