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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 53

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(13:11) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 41 yards to MIA 12, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 14-J.Landry to MIA 19 for 7 yards (26-J.Robinson).

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.59 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 53, worth -3.42 EP
KICK -2.42 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.40 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -3.29 EP
PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 15, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP