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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 65

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(9:19) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 44 yards to MIA 21, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 19-J.Grant.

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.73 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 65, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 23, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model