4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 13 at the 62

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 – Miami Dolphins 13

What Actually Happened

(4:50) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 36 yards to MIA 26, Center-65-G.Sanborn, downed by TB-53-A.Glanton.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.19 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 62, worth -2.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 21, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model