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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 17

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 – Miami Dolphins 20

What Actually Happened

(:07) (Field Goal formation) 7-P.Murray 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +1.80 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 17, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +2.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.02 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 27, worth -0.00 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model