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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 39

Washington Commanders 10 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(13:03) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 85-V.Davis to NO 13 for 26 yards (43-M.Williams). Pass 22, YAC 4

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.58 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 39, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -0.26 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 48, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model