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Washington Commanders

HC Jay Gruden
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New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2017-11-19 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 9.5 O/U 52.5

Win Probability

WAS
27.1%
NO
72.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO offense: +0.144 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • NO defense: -0.170 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Drew Brees (NO): +0.234 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

WAS 21
–
NO 29
Projected margin: NO by 8 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

WAS

Spencer Long C Out Knee
Terrelle Pryor WR Out Ankle
Jordan Reed TE Out Hamstring
Quinton Dunbar CB Questionable Illness
Zach Brown LB Questionable Achilles
Ryan Grant WR Questionable Concussion
DeAngelo Hall S Questionable Knee
Matt Ioannidis DE Questionable Hand
Anthony Lanier DE Questionable Knee
Shawn Lauvao G Questionable Stinger
Montae Nicholson S Questionable Shoulder
Ty Nsekhe T Questionable Core Muscle
Niles Paul TE Questionable Concussion
Brian Quick WR Questionable Concussion
Brandon Scherff G Questionable Knee
Trent Williams T Questionable Knee

NO

Kenny Vaccaro S Questionable Groin
A.J. Klein LB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 31
–
NO 34

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:45 FG WAS (11:45) 6-N.Rose 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 3 – NO 0
  • Q1 05:35 FG NO (5:35) 3-W.Lutz 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. WAS 3 – NO 3
  • Q1 02:16 TD WAS (2:16) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 25-C.Thompson for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 16, YAC 0 WAS 9 – NO 3
  • Q1 00:43 TD NO (:43) 22-M.Ingram right guard for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 10 – NO 9
  • Q2 10:47 TD WAS (10:47) 32-S.Perine right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 16 – NO 10
  • Q2 00:05 FG NO (:05) 3-W.Lutz 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. WAS 17 – NO 13
  • Q3 01:44 TD WAS (1:44) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 14-R.Grant for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN [57-A.Okafor]. Pass 26, YAC 14 WAS 23 – NO 13
  • Q4 09:24 FG NO (9:24) 3-W.Lutz 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. WAS 24 – NO 16
  • Q4 06:03 TD WAS (6:03) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 87-J.Sprinkle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO-57-A.Okafor was injured during the play. His return is Doubtful. Pass 7, YAC 0 WAS 30 – NO 16
  • Q4 02:56 TD NO (2:56) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 89-J.Hill for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 3, YAC 0 WAS 31 – NO 22
  • Q4 01:11 TD NO (1:11) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 41-A.Kamara for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 31 – NO 29
  • Q5 07:28 FG NO (7:28) 3-W.Lutz 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. WAS 31 – NO 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 7 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 91%

    (11:45) 6-N.Rose 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 13 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 70%

    (5:35) 3-W.Lutz 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 6 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 58%

    (13:03) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 85-V.Davis to NO 13 for 26 yards (43-M.Williams). Pass 22, YAC 4

  • Q2 NO 4th & 5 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 33%

    (7:00) 6-T.Morstead punts 41 yards to WAS 8, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 12 at the 38
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 61%

    (1:46) 5-T.Way punts 38 yards to end zone, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Touchback. WA #38 J.Holsey caught the ball at the goal line, but his heels were ruled on the line and therefore a touchback.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 1 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 96%

    (:05) 3-W.Lutz 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 17 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (12:59) 5-T.Way punts 45 yards to NO 23, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 11-T.Lewis.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 1 at the 56
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (10:14) 61-J.LeRibeus reported in as eligible. 9-D.Brees up the middle to NO 46 for 2 yards (91-R.Kerrigan).

  • Q3 NO 4th & 9 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 51%

    (7:31) 6-T.Morstead punts 36 yards to WAS 6, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-49-Z.Wood.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 1 at the 85
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (5:40) (Punt formation) 84-N.Paul up the middle to WAS 20 for 5 yards (56-M.Mauti).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 3 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (13:38) 6-T.Morstead punts 42 yards to WAS 15, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 76
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (11:34) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to NO 25, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 11-T.Lewis pushed ob at NO 49 for 24 yards (40-J.Harvey-Clemons).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 7 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 87%

    (9:24) 3-W.Lutz 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 2 at the 67 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (2:00) 5-T.Way punts 54 yards to NO 13, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 11-T.Lewis.