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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 11

New Orleans Saints 10 – Washington Commanders 17

What Actually Happened

(:05) 3-W.Lutz 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +2.07 EP
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +3.09 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +2.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.01 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 22, worth -0.00 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model