4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 42

New Orleans Saints 13 – Washington Commanders 17

What Actually Happened

(7:31) 6-T.Morstead punts 36 yards to WAS 6, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-49-Z.Wood.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.78 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 42, worth -2.12 EP
KICK -0.27 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model