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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 76

Washington Commanders 24 – New Orleans Saints 13

What Actually Happened

(11:34) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to NO 25, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 11-T.Lewis pushed ob at NO 49 for 24 yards (40-J.Harvey-Clemons).

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.20 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 76, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 34, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP