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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 17 at the 99

Chicago Bears 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(9:33) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 44 yards to CHI 45, Center-49-A.DePaola, downed by CHI-27-S.McManis.

The Three Options

GO -4.60 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.51 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 99, worth -6.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (116 yards).

PUNT -3.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 53, worth -3.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model