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Chicago Bears

3-8 HC John Fox
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Philadelphia Eagles

10-1 HC Doug Pederson
Sunday 2017-11-26 · 13:00 ET Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US 💨 Windy Spread 14.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

CHI
13.5%
PHI
86.5%
💨 Windy

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • PHI offense: +0.128 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • CHI offense: -0.159 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • QB edge to PHI: Carson Wentz (PHI) +0.180 vs Mitch Trubisky (CHI) -0.144 EPA/dropback
  • PHI defense: -0.140 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • Wind 17 mph

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

CHI 15 8–22
–
PHI 27 20–34
Projected margin: PHI by 12 Projected total: 42

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 12

CHI

Josh Bellamy WR Doubtful Concussion
DeAndre Houston-Carson S Doubtful Ankle
Roy Robertson-Harris DE Doubtful Hamstring
Danny Trevathan LB Doubtful Calf
Pernell McPhee LB Questionable Knee
Mark Sanchez QB Questionable Illness
Dontrelle Inman WR Questionable Groin
Dion Sims TE Questionable Illness
Mitch Unrein DE Questionable Knee
Bryce Callahan CB Questionable Knee
Tom Compton T Questionable Ankle
Akiem Hicks DE Questionable Knee
Kyle Long G Questionable Ankle

PHI

Beau Allen DT Questionable Knee
Trey Burton TE Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 3
–
PHI 31

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:09 TD PHI (6:09) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep middle to 86-Z.Ertz for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-S.Acho]. CHI 0 – PHI 6
  • Q2 10:59 TD PHI (10:59) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 13-N.Agholor for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – PHI 13
  • Q2 06:57 FG PHI (6:57) 4-J.Elliott 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones. CHI 0 – PHI 17
  • Q2 00:09 TD PHI (:09) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 17-A.Jeffery for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – PHI 23
  • Q3 08:45 FG CHI (8:45) 2-C.Santos 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-A.DePaola, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 3 – PHI 24
  • Q4 13:50 TD PHI (13:50) 36-J.Ajayi right end to CHI 5 for 30 yards (22-C.LeBlanc). FUMBLES (22-C.LeBlanc), recovered by PHI-13-N.Agholor at CHI -2. TOUCHDOWN. CHI-22-C.LeBlanc was injured during the play. CHI 3 – PHI 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 11 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 19%

    (11:18) 8-D.Jones punts 41 yards to CHI 9, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-59-J.Walker. PENALTY on CHI-31-M.Cooper, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at CHI 9.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CHI 4th & 5 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (9:47) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 34 yards to CHI 44, Center-49-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 PHI 4th & 1 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 56%

    (8:12) 36-J.Ajayi left end to CHI 33 for 2 yards (38-A.Amos).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CHI 4th & 3 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 34%

    (4:07) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 36 yards to PHI 7, Center-49-A.DePaola, downed by CHI-26-D.Bush.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CHI 4th & 4 at the 36
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 54%

    (1:25) 2-C.Santos 54 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-49-A.DePaola, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CHI 4th & 17 at the 99
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (9:33) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 44 yards to CHI 45, Center-49-A.DePaola, downed by CHI-27-S.McManis.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 PHI 4th & 5 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 76%

    (6:57) 4-J.Elliott 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CHI 4th & 4 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (4:49) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 39 yards to PHI 31, Center-49-A.DePaola, downed by CHI-27-S.McManis.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 PHI 4th & 1 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 23%

    (2:38) 11-C.Wentz up the middle to CHI 47 for 1 yard (98-M.Unrein).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CHI 4th & 8 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 88%

    (8:45) 2-C.Santos 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-A.DePaola, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 PHI 4th & 1 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 37%

    (4:20) 11-C.Wentz up the middle to CHI 39 for 3 yards (96-A.Hicks).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 PHI 4th & 6 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 56%

    (2:08) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short right to 13-N.Agholor (39-E.Jackson, 22-C.LeBlanc).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CHI 4th & 13 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (1:14) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 58 yards to PHI 10, Center-49-A.DePaola. 38-K.Barner ran ob at PHI 27 for 17 yards (30-B.Cunningham).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CHI 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (12:46) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 40 yards to PHI 40, Center-49-A.DePaola, fair catch by 38-K.Barner.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 PHI 4th & 9 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (11:48) 8-D.Jones punts 46 yards to CHI 13, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-54-K.Grugier-Hill.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CHI 4th & 2 at the 54
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (9:42) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete short middle to 18-T.McBride.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CHI 4th & 9 at the 31 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 67%

    (1:56) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short right intended for 18-T.McBride INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Graham (32-R.Douglas) at PHI 22. 24-C.Graham to CHI 19 for 59 yards (65-C.Whitehair).

    See the full breakdown →