CHI @ PHI — 4th & Data

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HC John Fox

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HC Doug Pederson

Sunday 2017-11-26 · 13:00 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US 💨 Windy Spread 14.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

CHI

17.7%

PHI

82.3%

💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

CHI offense: -0.159 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
QB edge to PHI: Carson Wentz (PHI) +0.180 vs Mitch Trubisky (CHI) -0.144 EPA/dropback
PHI offense: +0.128 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
PHI defense: -0.140 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
CHI defense: -0.072 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
Wind 17 mph

Predicted Final Score

CHI 15

–

PHI 27

Projected margin: PHI by 12 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

CHI

Josh Bellamy WR Doubtful Concussion

DeAndre Houston-Carson S Doubtful Ankle

Roy Robertson-Harris DE Doubtful Hamstring

Danny Trevathan LB Doubtful Calf

Pernell McPhee LB Questionable Knee

Mark Sanchez QB Questionable Illness

Dontrelle Inman WR Questionable Groin

Dion Sims TE Questionable Illness

Mitch Unrein DE Questionable Knee

Bryce Callahan CB Questionable Knee

Tom Compton T Questionable Ankle

Akiem Hicks DE Questionable Knee

Kyle Long G Questionable Ankle

PHI

Beau Allen DT Questionable Knee

Trey Burton TE Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 3

–

PHI 31

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 06:09 TD PHI (6:09) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep middle to 86-Z.Ertz for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-S.Acho]. CHI 0 – PHI 6
Q2 10:59 TD PHI (10:59) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 13-N.Agholor for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – PHI 13
Q2 06:57 FG PHI (6:57) 4-J.Elliott 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones. CHI 0 – PHI 17
Q2 00:09 TD PHI (:09) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 17-A.Jeffery for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – PHI 23
Q3 08:45 FG CHI (8:45) 2-C.Santos 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-A.DePaola, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 3 – PHI 24
Q4 13:50 TD PHI (13:50) 36-J.Ajayi right end to CHI 5 for 30 yards (22-C.LeBlanc). FUMBLES (22-C.LeBlanc), recovered by PHI-13-N.Agholor at CHI -2. TOUCHDOWN. CHI-22-C.LeBlanc was injured during the play. CHI 3 – PHI 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 PHI 4th & 11 at the 50

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32% p(FG) 19%

(11:18) 8-D.Jones punts 41 yards to CHI 9, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-59-J.Walker. PENALTY on CHI-31-M.Cooper, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at CHI 9.
Q1 CHI 4th & 5 at the 90

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 44%

(9:47) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 34 yards to CHI 44, Center-49-A.DePaola, out of bounds.
Q1 PHI 4th & 1 at the 35

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 69% p(FG) 56%

(8:12) 36-J.Ajayi left end to CHI 33 for 2 yards (38-A.Amos).
Q1 CHI 4th & 3 at the 43

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP

p(convert) 46% p(FG) 34%

(4:07) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 36 yards to PHI 7, Center-49-A.DePaola, downed by CHI-26-D.Bush.
Q1 CHI 4th & 4 at the 36

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP

p(convert) 40% p(FG) 54%

(1:25) 2-C.Santos 54 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-49-A.DePaola, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
Q2 CHI 4th & 17 at the 99

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26%

(9:33) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 44 yards to CHI 45, Center-49-A.DePaola, downed by CHI-27-S.McManis.
Q2 PHI 4th & 5 at the 27

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42% p(FG) 76%

(6:57) 4-J.Elliott 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.
Q2 CHI 4th & 4 at the 70

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 45%

(4:49) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 39 yards to PHI 31, Center-49-A.DePaola, downed by CHI-27-S.McManis.
Q2 PHI 4th & 1 at the 48

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 70% p(FG) 23%

(2:38) 11-C.Wentz up the middle to CHI 47 for 1 yard (98-M.Unrein).
Q3 CHI 4th & 8 at the 20

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28% p(FG) 88%

(8:45) 2-C.Santos 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-A.DePaola, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
Q3 PHI 4th & 1 at the 42

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 70% p(FG) 37%

(4:20) 11-C.Wentz up the middle to CHI 39 for 3 yards (96-A.Hicks).
Q3 PHI 4th & 6 at the 35

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40% p(FG) 56%

(2:08) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short right to 13-N.Agholor (39-E.Jackson, 22-C.LeBlanc).
Q3 CHI 4th & 13 at the 68

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27%

(1:14) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 58 yards to PHI 10, Center-49-A.DePaola. 38-K.Barner ran ob at PHI 27 for 17 yards (30-B.Cunningham).
Q4 CHI 4th & 15 at the 80

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26%

(12:46) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 40 yards to PHI 40, Center-49-A.DePaola, fair catch by 38-K.Barner.
Q4 PHI 4th & 9 at the 59

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36%

(11:48) 8-D.Jones punts 46 yards to CHI 13, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-54-K.Grugier-Hill.
Q4 CHI 4th & 2 at the 54

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 55%

(9:42) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete short middle to 18-T.McBride.
Q4 CHI 4th & 9 at the 31 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.71 EP

p(convert) 28% p(FG) 67%

(1:56) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short right intended for 18-T.McBride INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Graham (32-R.Douglas) at PHI 22. 24-C.Graham to CHI 19 for 59 yards (65-C.Whitehair).