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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 70

Chicago Bears 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

What Actually Happened

(4:49) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 39 yards to PHI 31, Center-49-A.DePaola, downed by CHI-27-S.McManis.

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.26 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 70, worth -4.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 28, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model