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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 48

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(2:38) 11-C.Wentz up the middle to CHI 47 for 1 yard (98-M.Unrein).

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.69 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 48, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -1.53 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 14, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model