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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 42

Philadelphia Eagles 24 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(4:20) 11-C.Wentz up the middle to CHI 39 for 3 yards (96-A.Hicks).

The Three Options

GO +1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.14 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 42, worth -2.09 EP
KICK -0.93 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 12, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model