4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 13 at the 68

Chicago Bears 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 24

What Actually Happened

(1:14) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 58 yards to PHI 10, Center-49-A.DePaola. 38-K.Barner ran ob at PHI 27 for 17 yards (30-B.Cunningham).

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.18 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 68, worth -3.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 26, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model