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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 15 at the 80

Chicago Bears 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 31

What Actually Happened

(12:46) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 40 yards to PHI 40, Center-49-A.DePaola, fair catch by 38-K.Barner.

The Three Options

GO -2.98 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 80, worth -4.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 37, worth -2.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model