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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 59

Philadelphia Eagles 31 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(11:48) 8-D.Jones punts 46 yards to CHI 13, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-54-K.Grugier-Hill.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.71 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 59, worth -2.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 18, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model