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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 31

Chicago Bears 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 31

What Actually Happened

(1:56) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short right intended for 18-T.McBride INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Graham (32-R.Douglas) at PHI 22. 24-C.Graham to CHI 19 for 59 yards (65-C.Whitehair).

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +3.53 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 31, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +0.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 41, worth -1.49 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.71 EP