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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 36

Chicago Bears 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(1:25) 2-C.Santos 54 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-49-A.DePaola, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.67 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 36, worth -2.19 EP
KICK -0.42 EP
What Happened
  • 54% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 46, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP