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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 12 at the 13

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(9:17) 4-R.Bullock 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +1.54 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.42 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 13, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 23, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model