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Cleveland Browns

HC Hue Jackson
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CIN Home

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Marvin Lewis
Sunday 2017-11-26 · 13:00 Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.5 O/U 39.0

Win Probability

CLE
22.6%
CIN
77.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.229 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to CIN: Andy Dalton (CIN) -0.040 vs DeShone Kizer (CLE) -0.312 EPA/dropback
  • CIN defense: -0.064 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • CIN offense: -0.048 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CLE 17
–
CIN 26
Projected margin: CIN by 9 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

CLE

Sammie Coates WR Out Knee
Derron Smith S Doubtful Knee

CIN

Vincent Rey LB Out Hamstring
Shawn Williams S Out Hamstring
Darqueze Dennard CB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 16
–
CIN 30

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:21 FG CLE (9:21) 5-Z.Gonzalez 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. CLE 3 – CIN 0
  • Q1 05:12 TD CIN (5:12) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 83-T.Boyd for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 3 – CIN 6
  • Q2 09:17 FG CIN (9:17) 4-R.Bullock 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CLE 3 – CIN 10
  • Q2 06:17 FG CIN (6:17) 4-R.Bullock 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CLE 3 – CIN 13
  • Q2 02:10 FG CIN (2:10) 4-R.Bullock 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CLE 3 – CIN 16
  • Q2 00:05 FG CLE (:05) 5-Z.Gonzalez 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. CLE 6 – CIN 16
  • Q3 10:26 TD CIN (10:26) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 81-T.Kroft for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 6 – CIN 22
  • Q3 04:37 FG CLE (4:37) 5-Z.Gonzalez 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. CLE 9 – CIN 23
  • Q4 07:01 TD CLE (7:01) (Shotgun) 7-D.Kizer up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 15 – CIN 23
  • Q4 03:02 TD CIN (3:02) 28-J.Mixon left end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 16 – CIN 29

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 97%

    (9:21) 5-Z.Gonzalez 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 15 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 85%

    (:14) 5-Z.Gonzalez 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 12 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 95%

    (9:17) 4-R.Bullock 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 19 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (7:49) 4-B.Colquitt punts 48 yards to CIN 45, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 24-A.Jones for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on CIN-82-C.Carter, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 39. {A.Jones credited with 16 yard return due to the penalty}

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 7 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 75%

    (6:17) 4-R.Bullock 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (5:22) 5-Z.Gonzalez punts 16 yards to CLE 45, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

    (2:10) 4-R.Bullock 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 12 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 89%

    (4:37) 5-Z.Gonzalez 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (2:34) 10-K.Huber punts 39 yards to CLE 32, Center-46-C.Harris. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 47 for 15 yards (87-C.Uzomah).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 10 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 23%

    (1:13) 4-B.Colquitt punts 44 yards to CIN 9, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 23 for 14 yards (27-M.Dayes).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 6 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 40%

    (12:32) 10-K.Huber punts 34 yards to CLE 11, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 1 at the 25
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 85%

    (9:42) 34-I.Crowell left guard to CIN 23 for 2 yards (55-V.Burfict; 96-C.Dunlap).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

    (7:01) (Shotgun) 7-D.Kizer up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 4 at the 42 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 48%

    (1:39) (Shotgun) 7-D.Kizer pass incomplete short middle to 80-R.Louis.