4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 71

Cleveland Browns 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 13

What Actually Happened

(5:22) 5-Z.Gonzalez punts 16 yards to CLE 45, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.30 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 71, worth -4.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 29, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model