4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 25

Cleveland Browns 9 – Cincinnati Bengals 23

What Actually Happened

(9:42) 34-I.Crowell left guard to CIN 23 for 2 yards (55-V.Burfict; 96-C.Dunlap).

The Three Options

GO +2.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.19 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 35, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model