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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Cleveland Browns
4th & 3 at the 3
Cleveland Browns 9 – Cincinnati Bengals 23
What Actually Happened
(7:01) (Shotgun) 7-D.Kizer up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+2.30 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
41% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.77 EP
- 59% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 3, worth -0.08 EP
KICK
+1.79 EP
- 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.95 EP
PUNT
-0.34 EP
- Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
