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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 42

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(:50) 7-M.King punts 40 yards to DEN 2, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-84-C.Patterson.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.51 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 42, worth -1.53 EP
KICK -0.30 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.06 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model