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Denver Broncos

HC Vance Joseph
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OAK Home

Oakland Raiders

HC Jack Del Rio
Sunday 2017-11-26 · 16:25 Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum, Oakland US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.5 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

DEN
40.0%
OAK
60.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DEN offense: -0.183 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • LV offense: -0.123 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • LV defense: +0.116 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • Paxton Lynch (DEN): -0.052 EPA/dropback in prior starts (DEN starting Paxton Lynch in place of Brock Osweiler)
  • DEN defense: -0.064 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (14th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DEN 18
–
OAK 21
Projected margin: OAK by 3 Projected total: 39

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

DEN

Domata Peko DT Questionable Illness
Adam Gotsis DE Questionable Ankle
Jeff Heuerman TE Questionable Knee
Shane Ray LB Questionable Wrist
Emmanuel Sanders WR Questionable Ankle

OAK

David Amerson CB Out Foot
Cordarrelle Patterson WR Questionable Hip
Johnny Holton WR Questionable Concussion
Gabe Jackson G Questionable Ankle
Cory James LB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 14
–
OAK 21

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 08:47 TD LV (8:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 89-A.Cooper for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 0 – OAK 6
  • Q2 02:53 TD LV (2:53) 24-M.Lynch left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 0 – OAK 13
  • Q3 06:27 TD LV (6:27) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 30-J.Richard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 0 – OAK 20
  • Q4 10:26 TD DEN (10:26) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass deep right to 14-C.Latimer for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 6 – OAK 21
  • Q4 02:44 TD DEN (2:44) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass deep middle to 16-B.Fowler for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 13 – OAK 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (14:12) 7-M.King punts 56 yards to DEN 13, Center-59-J.Condo. 87-J.Taylor to DEN 21 for 8 yards (20-O.Melifonwu).

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 6 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (12:39) 9-R.Dixon punts 55 yards to LV 20, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 2 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (8:57) 7-M.King punts 33 yards to DEN 24, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 87-J.Taylor.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 17 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (6:31) 9-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to LV 36, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 30-J.Richard to LV 46 for 10 yards (16-B.Fowler).

  • Q1 LV 4th & 17 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 30%

    (3:46) 7-M.King punts 38 yards to DEN 8, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 87-J.Taylor.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 6 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (1:49) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to LV 28, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-42-C.Kreiter.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (6:57) 9-R.Dixon punts 37 yards to LV 42, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 30-J.Richard to LV 48 for 6 yards (14-C.Latimer).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (2:31) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 37 yards to LV 40, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-31-J.Simmons.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 7 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 40%

    (:50) 7-M.King punts 40 yards to DEN 2, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-84-C.Patterson.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 20 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (11:13) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to LV 33, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 30-J.Richard to LV 34 for 1 yard (50-Z.Anderson).

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 1 at the 76
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (4:55) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to LV 34, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 38-T.Carrie.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 1 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP
    p(convert) 67%

    (2:36) 7-M.King punts 51 yards to DEN 6, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 87-J.Taylor.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 9 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (1:49) 9-R.Dixon punts 58 yards to LV 34, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 30-J.Richard pushed ob at LV 42 for 8 yards (32-A.Janovich). PENALTY on LV-57-C.James, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LV 42.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 5 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 21%

    (14:17) 7-M.King punts 43 yards to DEN 7, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 87-J.Taylor.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 7 at the 25
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 82%

    (10:26) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass deep right to 14-C.Latimer for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 13 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 92%

    (5:50) 2-G.Tavecchio 35 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.