4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 57

Las Vegas Raiders 21 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(2:36) 7-M.King punts 51 yards to DEN 6, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 87-J.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.20 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 57, worth -2.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 17, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP